Risk Management Solutions (RMS) has published the fourth annual release of its ‘US Terrorism Risk Model’, which incorporates the latest and most comprehensive expert views of terrorism risk. The updated analysis shows that while the risk of terrorist activity continues to increase globally, the risk of attack by terrorists on US soil has slightly decreased due to improvements in counter-terrorism security measures. However, the risk of extreme events over the next five years, including terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons, has increased.

RMS' updated terrorism threat level analysis was developed using an exhaustive study of recent and historical events, along with input from specialists in counter-terrorism intelligence, Jane's Information Group, and experts from RAND Corporation, the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrew's University in Scotland, and the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore.

Of most concern is the possibility of terrorists obtaining and using weapons of mass destruction, such as CBRN weapons. RMS has analysed the risk of CBRN attacks using new techniques and specialist data. The new model suggests that although the probability of a CBRN attack remains small, biological attacks make up an increasing share of the CBRN risk, likely resulting in more deadly attacks.

"The improvements in US security are making it harder to carry out big attacks, but as we've seen in the attacks in London and Madrid, the terrorists are now using smaller-scale attacks on soft targets to cause civilian casualties," said Dr. Andrew Coburn, director of terrorism research at RMS. "The threat of a mass-casualty attack by a determined group remains a real possibility."

The RMS Probabilistic Terrorism Model provides a comprehensive analysis of terrorism risk in the US, quantifying risk from both foreign and domestic terrorist organisations. The model is currently used by more than 100 insurance and reinsurance companies throughout the US, Bermuda, Europe and Asia.